Ole Miss Prediction

A timely bye week that was beneficial for everyone, including me, has come to an end and it is time to attack the last portion of the schedule.

Today’s game against Ole Miss could be a pivotal point in the Hog’s season. A win today would mean they have a shot at a bowl game after a horrific start, and a loss would make it very hard to achieve that goal.

Ole Miss has had some good performances this season, but they have also had a few embarrassments (see Texas). Nonetheless, Coach Hugh Freeze is proud of his team’s ability to battle this season prompting him to label them overachievers in this week’s SEC teleconference.

The Rebels played Texas A&M and Alabama, two common opponents to Arkansas, tough and fared much better than the Hogs. This makes a lot of fans nervous, and for good reason.

Although there is reason for hope, the Hogs have improved greatly the past two games on both sides of the ball. The Razorback’s defense has played lights out against struggling Auburn and Kentucky offenses, but will get a test today against Ole Miss’ hurry-up attack.

Tyler Wilson and company, while putting up large amounts of yards all season, have finally gotten things figured out on third down. In my opinion, that was the single most reason for lack of points scored during the Hog’s nasty losing streak along with red-zone deficiency.

Everything that happened early this season points to today’s game being close, but for some reason I don’t feel that way.

I think if the Hog’s offense can play the way it has the last two games, Ole Miss and everyone else left on the schedule will have trouble keeping them from putting points on the board.

If the defense can keep the Rebels under 30 points today I think it’s enough to win.

The offense explodes again today and we hang a big number on the board.

Arkansas     41

Ole Miss     24

John L. Talk Stops; Bowl Talk Starts After Win

A win is all it took for a Saturday night without rumors of Arkansas’ coach being fired. For the first time in weeks there were no rumors of John L. Smith being out as the Hog’s head coach, following Arkansas win over Auburn. In fact, the topic of choice has changed to will the Hogs make a bowl game this season. My guess is not without significant improvement still, but no doubt the outlook is brighter than a week ago.

 

The defense looked significantly better on Saturday, but the pass secondary was till porous giving up over 280 yards through the air. The unit did manage three interceptions and played a big part in the win. The defensive line stepped up most of all recording 8 sacks. Trey Flowers had 3.5 sacks, and was an unstoppable force for most of the game. Thanks to the sacks, Auburn’s rushing total was barely forty yards.

 

The offense was able to find the end-zone three times, but was only 3-12 on third down and yielded less first downs than the struggling opponent. Despite the struggles, the Hogs turned the ball over less and executed better. Yet there was a long stretch throughout the second and third quarters where the offense struggled, leaving the defense on the field for most of the two quarters. That allowed Auburn to get back in the game at the end of the third quarter, before the Hogs offense woke up again in the fourth.

 

Even so, since one of the Hog’s victories this season was against Jacksonville State, they will have to win 5 of the last 7 games to become bowl eligible. With Mississippi State, South Carolina, and LSU still on the schedule it’s hard to see that happening. Still don’t count the Hogs out with Tyler Wilson at QB.

Arkansas vs Texas A&M Prediction

I think it may be time for a first here at WeArePigSooie.  It will be hard to pick the Hogs today for several reasons.

It’s no secret that the Hogs have struggled on both sides of the ball during this three game skid.

The offensive line has been unable to protect Tyler Wilson, or make holes for the running backs.

The receivers have been inconsistent with running routes, and have dropped several big passes.

The execution has not been there on third down.

Defensively, the Hogs have looked even worse. They have given up yards in bunches against less-than-impressive offensive teams to start the season. The Hogs haven’t given up less than 30 points to an FBS team this season, something that will not win you many games in the SEC where defense is king.

When you put those deficiencies up against the Aggie’s strengths and it appears today could be even harder to watch.

Texas A&M led the country in sacks last season, and has started this season right where they left off. This could be an issue for an offensive line that failed to protect Wilson against Louisiana-Monroe.

Due to their great pass rush, the Aggies have been solid against the pass this year. This will make the emergence of Arkansas’ running game that much more important.

Then you get to Johnny Manziel, a freshman standout that has thrown seven touchdown passes and ran for five more. He poses a similar threat as Louisiana-Monroe’s QB, but at a much higher level. Manziel is a legend in Texas high school football, and is expected to excel by most recruiting analysts.

Can the Hogs defense improve enough to stop Manziel? Can the offensive line give Wilson enough time to pick apart A&M’s secondary? Can the Hogs establish enough of a running game to keep the Aggies honest on defense?

I hope so, but I am not betting on it this week. After three straight road losses it’s hard to believe the Hogs will turn it around in one of the toughest venues in college football.

I think they will look improved, but come up short.

 

Texas A&M         42

Arkansas              38

A transposed version of last year’s game.

 

Time for Hogs to Move Forward/ Rutgers Prediction

Despite a horrific start, the Razorbacks have a chance to get on track and have a meaningful season. Let’s face it. The season couldn’t have started out much worse, considering the Hogs started ranked in the top 10. Coming off an eleven-win season that was good enough for a top five finish, and returning the conference’s best QB/RB tandem, a 1-2 start was the last thing on the mind of players and fans.

Well, the reality is the Hogs are 1-2, and a loss today could send the team into a tailspin from which it may not recover. A win today could put the Hogs in a familiar position: going into SEC play down a game. The Razorbacks have started conference play with a loss since Nick Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa, so the Hogs are in the same position as they were last season as far as conference aspirations are concerned. The Louisiana-Monroe loss did kill Arkansas’ national title hopes, but a run like the Hogs have put together the last several years down the stretch could end the season on a respectable note.

Granted, the entire team will have to play better to make that happen, but the team returns its unquestioned leader Tyler Wilson today. The Razorbacks have been a completely different team with Wilson at QB this year. He gives them a chance to beat any team in the country just by stepping on the field.

My picks have been more hopeful than accurate so far this season, so I’m going to try to turn it around today and be realistic. The Razorbacks will be a much better offense with Wilson at QB, but anything is better than 0. This isn’t a mid-major defense the Hogs are facing today. The Scarlet Knights are ranked in the top 10 in most defensive categories, but face their first real test today.

It will be hard for Rutgers to dominate on their first ever trip to Fayetteville, and the Hogs should have a chip on their shoulder today. There has been nothing but negative attention surrounding the team the last few weeks, and I’m sure they are ready to get that bad taste out of their mouths. Hogs win, but not in a blowout.

Arkansas 31

Rutgers   24

Wilson Cleared to Play/ Reading Material

Recruits reflect on Alabama game visit | The Recruiting Guy.

Students show support following practice | The Slophouse.

With Wilson, perception changes | The Slophouse.

Arkansas Razorbacks’ Tyler Wilson cleared to play vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights – ESPN.

Wright working at defensive end | The Slophouse.

UA Coaching Search: Dream or Real?.

For those of you that don’t have 247 Sports, you might want to think about it. Otis Kirk and Robert Turbeville provide the best coverage around.

The offense should be alot better this week with Wilson back. Rutgers is a better team than Louisiana-Monroe so the Hogs better play to win.

What do you guys think the score of this week’s game against Rutgers will be? You can post your thoughts in the comments section.

Arkansas Will be Judged Today/Alabama Prediction

Well, it’s finally here. The Big Showdown between Arkansas and Alabama was supposed to be the Hog’s chance to proclaim western division dominance in 2012. That was before a disappointing overtime loss to Louisiana-Monroe in Little Rock last Saturday. The loss has caused variation of opinion throughout the fan base. The national media has also given up on the Hogs. Media members’ opinions vary, but just about how lopsided Arkansas’ loss will be today.

No doubt the Razorbacks will have a tough time if Quarterback Tyler Wilson is out, but if the offensive line doesn’t play better this week it won’t matter who is behind center for the Hogs. The defense will also have to step up. Giving up an average of 29 points to Jacksonville State and Louisiana-Monroe is not a good way to prepare for Alabama’s bruising attack, but there is nowhere to go but up from here for the unit.

Several things will affect the game in my opinion. Will the defense allow us to hang around? Can the offensive line improve enough to establish some kind of a running game and protect the passer? Will Tyler Wilson start? If Wilson cannot go, Will Brandon Mitchell get his shot at QB?

Honestly, I think if Wilson can’t go Brandon Mitchell is our only chance to win. Not only does Mitchell have experience against SEC teams, but he also adds athleticism at the position which is important against the Tide (see Cam Newton, and Tim Tebow). Mitchell had impressive numbers as a back-up last season. When EA Sports simulated the Arkansas versus Alabama game before the start of the season, Tyler Wilson was injured in the game and Brandon Mitchell led the Hogs to victory in a shootout.

Brandon Allen has looked impressive at times, and will definitely be a high caliber player in this league. Although, last week in the second half he proved he is not ready for the swarming tenacity that is Alabama’s defense.

If Wilson plays I think we have a chance to shock the world, and pull it out. It may not be pretty, but it’s possible. If Brandon Mitchell starts, I think we have a shot. If Brandon Allen starts, I think it could get ugly fast!

My prediction

If Wilson plays:                                 Arkansas              38

Alabama              31

If Mitchell plays                                Arkansas              42

Alabama              38           (same as EA Simulation)

If Allen plays                                      Alabama              35

Arkansas              21

 

 

Louisiana-Monroe Prediction

The Hogs had a few first-game jitters early in their first contest, last Saturday. The coaching staff has focused on ball control this week and I expect the offense to be sharp. It would be nice if the Razorbacks could establish an identity running the ball against the Warhawks tomorrow, but if they blitz as much as expected the Hogs may throw the ball almost every down as Paul Petrino alluded to earlier this week. That means Tyler Wilson should have a big game, and I expect him to hover around the 400 yard mark. Hopefully the Hogs will show their ability to make the big play against the blitz.

The defense also needs to make a statement in tomorrow’s game, after giving up 24 points to FCS member Jacksonville State last week. In ther defense, 2 of the Gamecock’s touchdowns came after turnovers by Arkansas’ offense in their own territory. Even so, the Hogs defense bent way too much and allowed the Gamecocks to move the ball mythodically all evening. Paul haynes pointed to poor tackilng and other “fixable” areas as the cause of the issues, and added that they can be mended easily. The unit’s progress will be on display in front of thousands of eager Hog fans with championship aspirations in Little Rock tomorrow.

 

Arkansas     41

LMU            13

 

Louisiana-Monroe Game may Provide Glimse of Arkansas’ Success

When Arkansas plays Louisiana-Monroe Saturday in Little Rock, it will be the end of a one-of-a-kind agreement between the two schools. The Razorbacks have let their foe from the south play as the home team in the Hog’s home venue in an attempt for the Warhawks to retain their FBS status. This was agreed to after the NCAA adopted a rule requiring a minimum attendance mark for the distinction.

The Last time the two teams met in 2010, Arkansas was in a similar situation. Expectations were high. The hope was for Arkansas to finally get over the hump against Alabama, and put together a run for a national title. The Hog’s even had a dark-horse Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback. Sound familiar?

Well, all these things are true again for the Hogs this season, and an early test against Louisiana-Monroe will again attempt to prepare the team for a grueling battle against the Crimson Tide. The Warhawks, as they did in 2010, play a very aggressive defensive scheme. They blitz up to 70% of the time, according to Arkansas’ Offensive Coordinator, Paul Petrino.  This sort of “all or nothing” approach will force the Hogs to make big plays against the pressure, or face having a tough time achieving offensive success. Ryan Mallett and company struggled against such pressure in the 2010 season meeting with Louisiana-Monroe. The Warhawks caused the offense so many problems the score was only 7-0 late in the third quarter, before the Hogs pulled away in the fourth.  Those mistakes proved as foreshadowing for the Alabama game a few weeks later, when the Hog’s slinger threw 2 interceptions late in his own territory.

Granted, Tyler Wilson is more mobile than Ryan Mallett, and therefore better against the blitz. Wilson completed right at 63% of his passes against the Tide and Bayou Bengals last year, even though he faced immense pressure in both games and was knocked down several times. Wilson has proven he can get the ball out accurately against pressure. It will be up to Arkansas’ receiving core to make things happen once they catch the ball this season. That is something three NFL bound receivers could not do last season against Alabama or LSU. More importantly, the Hogs will have to gain more than a combined 64 yards rushing against the two teams this year to meet their goals.

The Hogs should have some success offensively against Louisiana-Monroe. They will certainly not lose the game even if they do not. Even without the threat of losing, the game will provide us with a barometer of sorts on how the Hog’s will handle pressure early this season, and hopefully show us why Tyler Wilson may be able to do what Ryan Mallett could not: Beat Alabama, and Nick Saban. In Mallett’s defense, he did get it figured out against LSU and took the Hogs to their first ever BCS Bowl. He always played well against LSU and would have beaten them twice if not for late kicking and defensive struggles in Baton Rouge in 2009.

Pay close attention to the offensive line’s play, and how the offense looks against the blitz. Those are two major areas that must be much improved from last year for the Hogs to win the SEC. The Hogs need to get some questions answered tomorrow in Little Rock.

Jacskonville State Prediction

We are going to post our best educated guess for each game’s outcome this season. Today Jack Crowe returns to Fayetteville. Tyler Wilson and Knile Davis finally get to take the field together as starters, and our defense gets to show all the progress they have made since the Cotton Bowl. I look for a huge first half explosion from the Hogs and several reserves to get their reps. Knile Davis will have a big day and Tyler Wilson will look sharp. I’m not looking for a shutout, but I do think the defense will play well.

 

Arkansas 44          Jacksonville State 13

5 Reasons Arkansas Will Beat Alabama This Year

Finally, it is game week and football is here! I’m going to skip doing a breakdown on the Jacksonville State game. No dis-respect to the Gamecocks, but something has been killing me lately and it is about time I make my point. Hardly anyone in the media is giving us a chance against Alabama this season. Given, the Tide has owned us the last several years, but there are some glaring differences in the upcoming September 15^th match-up and last year’s game. In fact, here are five good reasons I think could make the difference this year.

1.     THE RETURN OF KNILE DAVIS

Obviously anytime you can bring back the SEC’s leading rusher, it is a good thing. Davis led the league in rushing in 2010 with 1322 yards, and this was mostly achieved in the last 6 games. Anyone who watched the Razorbacks at the end of that season recognized a difference in Arkansas’ offense with a home-run threat in the backfield: something that the Hogs had lacked since Darren McFadden and Felix Jones’ departures. Davis is a real threat to take it to the house on any carry, which will make it harder for the Tide to key in on Tyler Wilson and the Razorback’s passing game. If the offensive line blocks well, the combination is unstoppable in theory.

2.      THE GAME IS IN FAYETTTEVILLE

The last time that Alabama came to Razorback Stadium they were, in my opinion, dominated by Arkansas for the first 3 quarters. The lack of emergence of a go-to running back, and 2 costly turnovers by Ryan Mallett in his own territory are what led to the win by Alabama. If you listen to the media, they act like we haven’t competed with Alabama for years and that is not true. Many of these same players were on that 2010 team who just fell short. This year’s game should be a lot different than last year’s. It’s hard to ignore how unstoppable Tyler Wilson was at home last season, and that was without a threatening run game. I’m sure Knile Davis would love to replay the 2010 game and get about 10 carries in the fourth quarter alone. Simply taking the ball out of the air and controlling the clock would have given the Hogs the big win they were looking for. This season, look for a healthy dose of Knile Davis, especially if we have a lead in the second half.

3.     ALABAMA IS RETURNING ONLY 4 STARTERS ON DEFENSE

Returning only 4 starters on defense is a challenge for any team. Granted, Nick Saban rarely has a lot of drop-off on that side of the ball. His defense has been in the top 6 in the country since his arrival to Tuscaloosa in 2008, but the Tide have to face Tyler Wilson and the SEC’s top passing attack in only the third game of the season. Chances are, some new faces will make mistakes and hesitate at least enough for the passing game to be effective. Also, Knile Davis will be adding a dimension to Arkansas’ offense that Alabama has not had to deal with since the Hogs started leading the division in passing.

4.     NEW WIDE RECIEVERS

A lot of experts have made a big deal about Arkansas losing 3 key receivers to the NFL. That is a fact that cannot be ignored, and that elite group will be missed. I just don’t think we are going to have much of a decline in the passing game without them. Naturally the reaction is to expect such with a team losing so much, but the Hogs are loaded at the position with talent. Now that the depth chart has been released you can also see that Cobi Hamilton is now Arkansas’ shortest starting wide-out. This is a drastic change from years past with the smaller type receivers that we have had. Players like Mekale McKay and Brandon Mitchell will add the jump ball dimension we have been lacking since Greg Childs injury 2 years ago.

5.     BIG PLAYS MADE THE DIFFERENCE LAST SEASON

From a general perspective it seemed that Alabama dominated from start to finish in last year’s game, but further investigation reveals some hope for this year. Alabama scored on 3 non-offensive touchdowns in that game last season, including the fake punt that seemed to change the games tone. Without the crazy plays the game was 17-14, a completely different story. My point is, even without us ever getting into a rhythm and being able to run the ball we still put up 14 points at their place. Add Knile Davis, a home-field advantage, the tide’s inexperience on defense, and taller receivers giving Wilson more confidence in the red zone and I think the hogs have a great chance to beat Saban and pave the way for a championship season.